Ok, we’re diving into safety today. Before I get into the data, I want to recognize that many of us have first-hand experiences with ourselves or our children feeling unsafe, or have a friend or neighbor with a story related to bullying, drugs, violence, suicide, depression, or anxiety. 

This post is not meant to demean or take away from those lived experiences. At the same time, I also want to recognize that fear is a powerful emotion, and sometimes those experiences can become larger-than-life in a local school or community. Today, we’re looking at what the research says more broadly in order to help make more informed decisions. 

Last week, we discussed how income influences academic performance, as a way to help us better contextualize and understand school rankings. Lower socioeconomic status (SES) school tend to be lower-ranked through no fault of their own, and as a result, those schools often tend to have a reputation of not being safe, compared to wealthier, higher-ranked schools, like a private school.

Perceptions of drugs, increased behavioral problems, school violence and bullying are common when considering low-ranked schools, which tend to be more socio-economically and racially diverse. And often, the data seems to support those perceptions, with researchers finding clear links between poverty and school disorder:

“In a study conducted by Townsend Carlson (2006) on a sample of American adolescents, poverty was a significant predictor of violent victimization at school.

 The results of this research indicate a correlation between the frequency of victimization and the socioeconomic status of the family from which the student comes, with students from poorer families at higher risk of violent victimization at school.”

Segregating low-income students together makes it worse:

“Within small neighborhood areas, grouping more disadvantaged students together in the same school increases total crime.”

From the U.S. Department of Justice: 

“Approximately 19 percent of students attending public schools reported that gangs were present at their school, compared with 2 percent of students attending private schools”

City schools, historically more racially and economically diverse, tend to take the brunt of the criticism: 

“A greater percentage of teachers in city schools (10 percent) reported being threatened with injury than teachers in town schools (7 percent) and suburban or rural schools (6 percent each)”

Given this data, is your child safe and secure at low-ranked schools, or would you be putting their wellbeing and sense of belonging at risk? 

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Violence, crime and bullying is decreasing in schools  

Let’s take a step back and view the data in a broader context. Overall, the news is good. The U.S. Department of Justice indicates that crime and violence in schools has generally been decreasing for some time: 

… Students are not often the victims of violent and serious violent crime in schools. These trends have been decreasing since 2001. Physical bullying victimization has also been on a downward trend since 2009-2010. Schools have reported fewer incidents of violent crime and serious violent crime, and these too have been on a downward trend since 2009-2010. School homicides, in comparison to other youth homicides, are relatively rare. 

Report on Indicators of School Crime & Safety: 2021. 

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCEI) reports similar declines: physical fights are down, students carrying weapons are down, alcohol use is down, bullying is down, criminal victimization is down, and threats and injuries are down. 

Similarly, a new 2023 UCLA study of more than 6 million students in California during an 18-year period found “massive reductions in all forms of victimization,” including:

• a 56% reduction in physical fights

• a 70% reduction in reports of carrying a gun onto school grounds, and a 68% reduction in bringing other weapons, such as a knife, to school

• a 59% reduction in being threatened by a weapon on school grounds

• and larger declines in victimization reported by Black and Latino students compared to white students

Where parents may have cause for concern is cyberbullying, which has doubled in the past ten years as the usage of phones and social media platforms have become the norm.

School climate is a better predictor of a school’s safety, more than the student population’s income or race

However, several studies suggest that safety concerns around low socioeconomic status (SES) schools may be misplaced. The new 2023 UCLA study that I reference above? The co-author reports that:

“these findings [on massive reductions] were evident in more than 95% of California schools, in every county, and not in wealthy suburban schools only.”

A study out of Penn State in 2021 claims that safety concerns are unfounded when integrating wealthy students into more diverse schools: 

“In fact, of all the survey scales that we looked at,” Peter Piazza reports, “the physical safety scale actually had the largest positive difference between white students in ‘diverse’ schools and white students in ‘not diverse’ schools.” 

And a study in the Journal of School Health in 2011 found:

“High student performance on standardized tests does not buffer students from unsafe behavior, nor does living in a dangerous neighborhood necessarily lead to more drug use or violence within school walls. School climate seemed to explain the difference between schools in which students and faculty reported higher versus lower levels of violence and alcohol and other drug use.”

In fact, school climate appears to be more important than socioeconomic status.  Much of the historical research on school violence has focused narrowly on disadvantaged youth, without examining other contextual factors that might influence violence and victimization. It turns out that simple and straightforward interventions like a good student-teacher ratio and clear communication make a big difference in increasing safety: 

“Schools in which students perceived greater fairness and clarity of rules had less delinquent behavior and less student victimization.”

“Across all models, higher levels of teacher support were associated with lower rates of victimization.”

“Reducing the ratio of students to teachers and reducing the number of different students taught by the average teacher are likely to reduce student victimization”. 

What doesn’t work? Researchers call it “punitive control:” interventions like surveillance, metal detectors, and heavy reliance on law enforcement and security personnel are found to be consistently unsuccessful.

Of course, the rub is that those measures are already concentrated in schools with high rates of ethnic non-White enrollment, leading to perceptions of greater violence and crime, perpetuating a vicious feedback loop that unfairly targets low socioeconomic students and the schools they attend.

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Comparing higher and lower-ranked schools

For our part in last week’s newsletter, we looked at the rankings of two high schools in Fairfax County and discovered that Langley is rated a 9, and Herndon is rated a 3. We showed how school rankings reflect a school’s demographics (Langley’s low-income population is 2.4 percent, while Herndon’s low-income population is 42 percent) more than how effective the school is at teaching your child.

Now let’s turn to safety. The Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) has historically required school divisions to submit data to the VDOE on incidents of Discipline, Crime and Violence (DCV), so we can compare our two schools that way.

In the 2018-2019 School Year, Herndon reported 114 DCV incidents, while Langley reported only 39 DCV incidents. It’s true that there were more incidents at Herndon, but their student enrollment is also higher. When looking at the percent of incidents per student, it’s less than five percent for Herndon and two percent at Langley, both very small numbers to say the least.

Source: Virginia Department of Education.

Note: we originally used 2020-2021 data for this comparison, but a reader pointed out the 2020-2021 school year was during the pandemic when most students were learning remotely; as a result, we’ve updated the data to 2018-2019. Thank you, Anne!

Summary

Let’s summarize what we know: 

• There are clear links between poverty and school disorder, but local research is needed in your community;

• Crime, violence and bullying are decreasing in schools overall;

• School climate is a better predictor of school safety than the socioeconomic status (SES) or racial demographics of a school’s population;

• Simple interventions such as clear rules, follow-through and teacher support have positive impacts on increasing safety.

I’m planning to turn our attention to a new subject for next week’s newsletter, but I promise to revisit school safety, with a deep dive on drugs and mental health in lower-ranked versus higher-ranked schools in the upcoming weeks.

Until then, please like this post if you found it useful or interesting, and drop a comment below with something you learned or are curious about. I love to hear from you.

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I received some great questions in my Instagram DMs, as well as comments on Twitter and LinkedIn last week (and yes, I’ve reactivated my social media accounts for this!). I have thoughts, but more importantly, I want to open it up to this community and hear your take.

First up, we have a reader with a question on private schools. Leave a comment with your thoughts. Then, take a peek at my reading recommendations for the week. 

“Why not just enroll them in a private school at this cost? [ie, an extra $270,000 to buy a home in a good school district] We’ve enrolled [our child] and the school isn’t crazy much more than daycare… good and SAFE schooling should be available to all. It’s sad we have to pay so much for a good school.”
- Crystal

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OK, let’s start with the most obvious angle here, finances.

In one of the most expensive places to raise a child, the DC area, you might pay around $24,081 per child per year for daycare or a high-quality preschool. By the time your child(ren) are ready to enter Kindergarten, many families are eager to save on this out-of-pocket cost. 

Private school tuition is expensive (more than you think), not to mention many private schools go heavy on fundraising asks. Let’s assume your private school tuition is a conservative $35,000 per child per year. Multiply that by thirteen years of schooling (K-12) and you can expect to pay at least $455,000, but you will need to manage that cost out-of-pocket each year.

The alternative is a one-time $270,000 home-buying premium, which, if you qualify, is not all that much when spread out in a monthly payment as part of a 30-year mortgage. Many parents also consider home appreciation which is more-or-less guaranteed in a high-ranking district. The idea is you get a return on your child’s education as well as a return on your home. (Of course, WSUL readers now know that you don’t need to pay a premium for good schools.)

While private school tuition may be manageable for an upper middle-class family for one child, it’s often out of reach for two or more children. A reader shared with me that if your household income is 7X the annual net tuition per child, you should consider private; however, if you’re comfortable with public school, then it may be better to invest that money with 4-10% compound annual return. 

These are financial decisions that every family needs to look at for themselves and weigh the potential return on that investment for their child’s future.

But school choice isn’t just about finances. Private schools are full of students from the same socioeconomic status (SES). An upper-middle class family may struggle to make ends meet while paying private school tuition, but they are still in the top 10%, a group that is remarkably homogeneous. In school year 2019–20, just over half (55 percent) of traditional public schools had more than 50 percent White enrollment, compared with 70 percent of private schools. This lack of diversity can be a significant turn-off to many parents. 

Others may value the friendships and playdates that public schools make available in your neighborhood, while private school friends may be more spread out geographically. A private school may be farther away and include a significantly longer commute or bus ride for your child. The private Montessori preschool our kids attended was only a 10 min drive, while the public school they will both attend is a short walk away…. but I am still counting down the days until we no longer have any sort of car-related drop-off or pick-up!

On the flip side, private schools often have unmatched facilities and amenities. They often pay teachers more, presumably attracting better-quality teachers. Private schools offer prestige, a built-in guarantee of sorts, while public schools often feel like they need to be managed in order to get the most out of their halls for your child. 

Some families may perceive private schools as safer than their neighborhood public school. As reader Crystal notes, all students deserve safe schooling. This is a not insignificant point that deserves more than we can cover in today’s Q&A; luckily, we’re already scheduled to dive deep into the issue of safety in Tuesday’s newsletter.

I also want to note that many families - most families - won’t even be able to consider private school. For parents with the privilege of choosing between public and private, what is their responsibility to the children of their community? This also bears significant consideration as the story of Where Success Lives unfolds.

We’ve only scratched the surface, and I’d love to hear your take. Would you or have you ever considered private school for your child? Why or why not?

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Read This

1. San Francisco and Washington, DC priced out low-wage workers. Now college graduates are leaving, too.
   

2. Almost 85-year old Elaine Soloway shares with that when she was 30, she moved to a neighborhood in Chicago called South Commons, designed to integrate white and Black people in a variety of housing styles, income, and ages. That neighborhood changed her.
   

3. When being economically disadvantaged in America poses seven times as large an obstacle to high student achievement as does race, it’s time to smash the college admissions process.
   

4. Here’s a great first-person account from of what it’s like to buy a home in Northern Virginia, or anywhere in the country. There's a sense of "trust us" without much to back that up.
   

5. Walking is good medicine. But many local policies outlaw walkable neighborhoods, reports . Consider supporting his documentary about unhealthy infrastructure (I did!).

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And while most of what we as parents can give to our children is free, a good education can often be bought. Parents go to great lengths to get the best possible education for their child, even paying a premium of up to $270,000 for a home in a high-ranking school boundary. 

Is it worth it? 

Many parents think so, and often turn to school rankings to assess the return on their investment. The thinking goes that schools with a high score reflect better performance, and must have better teachers, resources and student outcomes.  Schools with a low score must be lacking or might be perceived unsafe. 

Neighborhoods with highly-rated schools see home values go up, while demand in low-rated districts is lower, and home values go down. 

The implication is that good schools are in limited supply.

Last week, we discovered that homes can go for a premium as low as $82,000 for a school rated 5 or 6, or as high as $270,000 for a school rated a 9, over homes in lower-ranking school boundaries, rated 2, 3 or 4. 

Repeated studies have found that parents are more than willing to “opt out” of a low-performing neighborhood school, either by making a move or switching to a charter school. 

Families that make a move pay the premium and choose to enroll their child in a higher-performing school district. School quality is often a higher priority than other factors such as proximity to work or family. 

In wealthy Fairfax County, many are choosing to move to neighboring Loudoun County. As Fairfax County’s demographics change, projected to be 62 percent non-White by 2040, many families, regardless of political persuasion, are choosing to move further out to new developments, in the name of more space and better schools. 

Other families choosing to opt-out of bad schools are more likely to choose charter schools over traditional public schools. The National Alliance for Public Charter Schools claims that "high-quality charter schools are in high demand, with long waitlists in many cities across the country.” 

This is especially prevalent in the Washington, DC area. Diving into the popular anonymous online forum DC Urban Moms and Dads, researchers examined school-focused discussions, searching through more than 400,000 messages.

“Where parents say they live in a neighborhood that is gentrifying, the study found that they mention charter schools more often than their neighborhood schools, suggesting these families are seeking information to opt out of their neighborhood schools,” the Washington Post reports. “Families are assigned and guaranteed slots at their neighborhood schools but can apply through the city’s school lottery system for a seat at a charter school or other school outside their neighborhood boundary.”

The study notes that many low-ranking schools “are never mentioned in the forums and parents are using the forum to share advice on how to get access to schools they perceive as the best in the city.”

For highly competitive and affluent parents in the Washington, DC area and across the country, the ability to choose the “right” school for your child can often be a marker of social standing, a way to signal your social and economic status. The school reflects your parenting skills and expectations for your child, not to mention the sense of validation and accomplishment a parent might feel when their child steps into a highly-ranked school. 

Access to quality schools is clearly top-of-mind for parents, but are these “good” schools effective, and worth the investment?

How Wealthy Parents Skew School Ratings

Fairfax County offers twenty-eight high schools. Of the twenty-five schools rated on GreatSchools, only 32 percent are ranked between 7-10; 19 percent are ranked between 5-6; while 44 percent of its schools are ranked between 2-4. Is it possible that such a well-to-do enclave is failing nearly half of its students, or is something else going on? 

The answer might be found by viewing the GreatSchools rankings through the lens of student demographics. Lower-ranked Fairfax County high schools, rated a 2, 3, or 4, have an average low-income population of 43%, while the higher-ranked schools, rated 9 or 10, have an average low-income population of only 5.8%. 

In Fairfax County Public Schools, lower-ranked high schools have an average low-income population of 43%, while higher-ranked high schools have an average low-income population of only 5.8%.
Source: GreatSchools School Profiles & Zillow, accessed Recently Sold by School District, February 16, 2023.

Research shows there is a strong correlation between family income and academic achievement. This is due to a variety of factors, such as access to high-quality preschools, tutoring programs, and a home environment that is conducive to learning.

The result? Children from wealthy families tend to score higher on standardized tests and perform better in school, regardless of whether they attend a high-or low-ranked school. 

And because school rankings heavily tilt toward test scores and other measures easily skewed by income, it can be difficult to assess whether a “good” school is effective at teaching your child to learn, or the student population is just wealthy. 

Wealthy families tend to live in the same neighborhoods after all, while school district lines are drawn around those communities, pooling high-performing students in the same schools. School rankings often reflect the demographics of a school, and tend to reward schools with wealthier student populations. 

The corollary, of course, is that schools with large populations of low socioeconomic students are penalized. GreatSchools knows this, and updated their ratings in the Fall of 2020, claiming that they now “give the most weight to growth data,” that is, student progress throughout a school year. GreatSchools says they “also increased our emphasis on equity data, so that it carries a similar weight as standardized test scores and college readiness information.” 

But due to a lack of consistent data availability, as well as methodological differences, it’s almost impossible to compare and contrast between any two schools. 

Let’s look at highly-sought after Langley High School, rated a 9. Langley’s overall score on GreatSchools is composed of two measures, Test Scores, weighted at 51 percent, and College Readiness, weighted at 49 percent. 

On Test Scores, Langley students get a 9 rating. GreatSchools reports that, “test scores at this school are far above the state average, suggesting that most students at this school are performing at or above grade level.” 

On College Readiness, a score made up of measures like the 4-year high school graduation rate, AP course participation, and SAT/ACT participation rate, Langley students also get a 9 rating. Again GreatSchools notes that, “This school is far above the state average in key measures of college and career readiness.”

Now let’s take a look at Herndon High School, rated a 3. Herndon’s overall score on GreatSchools is composed of three measures, including Test Scores, weighted at only 35 percent this time, College Readiness, weighted at only 31 percent, and one measure not included on the Langley rating: Equity, weighted at 35 percent.

Composite data for GreatSchools’ overall ratings is often weighted differently and inconsistent.
Source: GreatSchools School Profiles.

On Test Scores, Herndon students get a 4. Great Schools reports that “test scores at this school fall far below the state average. This suggests that students at this school are likely not performing at grade level.”

On College Readiness, Herndon students get a rating of 2. While AP course participation and SAT/ACT participation is at or above state average, the 4-year high school graduation rate is 6 points lower, causing Great Schools to report, “This school is far below the state average in key measures of college and career readiness.”

On Equity, Herndon gets a rating of 2. Equity wasn’t a measure included in Langley’s overall score, and yet it’s given over one-third weight in Herndon’s total score, with Great Schools claiming that “this school may have large achievement gaps.”

Langley and Herndon have vastly different student demographics. Low-income students at Langley make up only 2.4% of the population, while they represent a staggering 39% of Herndon’s student population. These student populations start at different places, and the ratings reflect those demographic differences, not how effective the school is at helping children learn and succeed. 

As we discovered earlier, wealthy students test well before they enter kindergarten, an advantage that stays with them as they progress grade levels. Should schools be getting credit for their performance, or is it their parents who deserve accolades? 

GreatSchools also includes a measure called “Academic Progress,” on certain school profiles which, if equally weighted in all school ratings, might allow parents to make distinctions about the effectiveness of the school. But growth data isn’t consistently shown, and it wasn’t included in either composite score for Langley or Herndon High.

What’s a parent to do? 

Making Sense of School Rankings

One strategy is to look beyond the overall scores, and view school demographics data through the lens of your family. This is called contextualizing the data: the practice of looking beyond the numbers and considering the circumstances that may have influenced them. Contextualization is important because data can be easily misinterpreted or manipulated if it is not analyzed in the appropriate context. 

Low-income populations are more likely to be racially diverse, a product of a long historical process. The corollary is that white students in the NoVA region are generally wealthier than their non-White peers.

Let’s say you belong in the latter group, and can shoulder the $270,000 premium to purchase a 3,000 square foot home in the Langley school district, instead of the same home in Herndon school district. Should you spend the extra cash? 

On College Readiness, White students score a 9 out of 10 at Langley, while they score 10 out of 10 at Herndon. 

On Advanced Coursework, 46 percent of White students are enrolled in Advanced Placement (AP courses) at Langley, while 48 percent of White students are enrolled in AP Courses at Herndon.

On Test Scores, White students receive a rating of 9 out of 10 at both at Langley and Herndon schools. 

So if you’re relatively well-off, both Langley and Herndon high are “good” schools. There’s no need to pay a premium to live in the Langley district. Remember, children from wealthy families tend to exhibit stronger academic performance, regardless of whether they attend a high-or low-ranked school. 

And if you want to split hairs, Herndon High, whose overall rating of 3 might have scared a wealthier family away, is actually slightly better for its more privileged student population than Langley High, whose overall rating is 9. 

Wealthy families have the advantage of being able to choose a neighborhood and school without taking into account school ratings or without paying a premium. There is no evidence that wealthier students suffer when integrated with low-income students, and in fact, research shows the opposite: every student thrives. 

While academic performance is an important factor in decision-making, parents also prioritize their child's safety and well-being when choosing a school. Drugs, school violence and bullying can be of concern in lower-ranked schools that have a reputation for being unsafe. Parents may wonder whether such a school can provide a safe environment for their child.  

We’ll dive into questions around safe schools in our next newsletter. In the meantime, like this post if you found it useful or interesting, and please leave a comment sharing your thoughts or perspective.

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You’re not the only one. Aspirational scrolling on apps like Zillow or Redfin is part of many a parent's routine, even when we have no plans to buy or sell a house. Whether voyeurism or escapism, browsing may help visualize an alternate life, or in better times, feel good about your own life decisions.

Like social media, it can be addicting. “It’s the closest thing we have to being able to pull up someone’s bank statement and make a boolean assessment of whether or not someone is rich,” says Brian Feldman in his newsletter Bnet. “Zillow is a database of wealth,” while also being “a giant canvas onto which people project their desires and insecurities.”

Wide-angled house photos may kick off your Zillow addiction, but it’s two numbers that likely have the most to do with your ambitions as a parent: the price of the house and the ranking of the nearest school. 

According to Realtor.com, nearly 75% of homebuyers said that school district boundaries were important or very important in their home search in a 2019 survey. Zillow conducts a similar survey and found in 2018 that 66% of homebuyers with children at home said that living within a preferred school district is very or extremely important.

Can opportunity be bought? How much is the future success of your child worth? 

Few things are more top-of-mind for parents, especially in Northern Virginia, a well-to-do enclave surrounding the outskirts of Washington, DC. Of the Nation’s top ten wealthiest counties, four are located in Northern Virginia, collectively referred to as “NoVA” by the locals. Those include Loudoun County, Falls Church City, Fairfax County, and Arlington County.

Four of the Nations’s top ten wealthiest counties are in Northern Virginia (NoVA), a wealthy enclave outside of Washington, DC. Source: 2020 Census & Wikipedia.

While Northern Virginia has a booming technology scene (Amazon, Microsoft and Google all have a presence), it has historically benefited from jobs in the government and defense sectors, being home to numerous federal agencies and defense contractors. As a result, NoVA’s economy has been more-or-less recession-proof. 

Ranked among the top high schools in Northern Virginia and the nation is Fairfax County’s Langley High. Median home values in Langley’s district, located in the posh and wooded area of Great Falls (realtors report you’ll find everything from Tudor mansions and Craftsman homes to expansive horse farms and luxurious estates), are $1.6 million. That’s nearly 60% more than the next wealthiest school district, neighboring McLean, where median home values sit at $1 million. 

Compare Langley and McLean to Fairfax County’s lower-ranked, by rating and reputation, Herndon High or South Lakes High, where median home values sit at $583,000 and $505,000 respectively. 

In Fairfax County, higher-ranked schools are in neighborhoods with larger home values, while lower-ranked schools reflect lower home values. Source: Zillow, accessed Recently Sold by School District, February 16, 2023.

And no, that’s not your imagination; researchers have found a clear correlation between the performance of a school and median home values. Median home sale prices go up the higher the school ranking.

Median home sale prices vs school test score percentile. Source: Redfin.

A popular destination for parents, GreatSchools is a nonprofit organization that provides school ratings and reviews. Out of a total possible score of 10, GreatSchools distills K-12 schools to a single numerical digit, based on academic performance, growth and other factors, such as equity and diversity. 

In the mid-2000s, GreatSchools began to work with real estate websites to integrate its school ratings into property listings. One of the earliest real estate websites to integrate GreatSchools ratings was Zillow, which began displaying school information alongside property listings in 2009. Since then, other sites, such as Redfin and Trulia, have also integrated GreatSchools ratings into their listings.

Check out a Great Falls home listing on Zillow in Fairfax County, and you’ll discover Langley High is rated a 9. Browsing neighboring districts, you’ll discover McLean High is rated a 7, South Lakes High is rated a 4, and Herndon High is rated a 3. 

GreatSchools ratings are integrated into home real estate listings. Source: Zillow.

GreatSchools ratings have a great influence on parent decisions, affecting opportunities and outcomes for an individual child, but also the culture, economy and dynamics of the neighborhood created by the school boundary line. Outsized advantages tend to pool for families within highly-rated areas.

The entry price to these opportunity neighborhoods is steep. Housing prices in the areas of highly-ranked schools are much higher than those served by lower-ranked schools.

According to a study by Redfin, homes located in the highest-rated school districts sell for an average of $205,000 more than homes in lower-rated school districts. A study by Trulia found that in some cities, the difference in home prices between neighborhoods with top-rated schools and those with average schools can be as much as 25%.

My own data verifies these findings. Returning to Fairfax County, I analyzed over 21,000 recently sold listings, and looked specifically at similar homes with 3000 to 3999 sq ft. I then compared prices between highly-ranked schools, rated a 9, and lower-ranked schools, rated a 2, 3 or 4. What I found was an average price difference of nearly $270,000. 

In Fairfax County, Virginia, parents can expect to pay a premium as much as $270,000, depending on the school district. Source: Zillow, accessed Recently Sold by School District, February 16, 2023.

If you’re willing to split the difference and settle in a neighborhood with a middle-ranked school, rated 5 or 6, you could save $186,000, but you’d still pay a premium of $82,000 over lower-ranked schools rated 2, 3 or 4. 

Of course, you might be thinking there are other considerations that go into the price of a home. In Northern Virginia, these factors include the commute time, proximity to Washington, DC, your view, lot size and so on. But, while “everyone assumes that better school districts tend to have bigger homes, higher quality homes, larger lots, or a more prime location,” Redfin has debunked that assumption. 

“When accounting for size,” Redfin reports, “on average, people pay $50 more per square foot for homes in top-ranked school zones compared with homes served by average-ranked schools.”

Source: Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS) High School Boundary Map, SY 2022-2023.

Let’s again consider similar homes in NoVA, both in square footage and with a prime location. Langley and McLean districts, rated 9 and 7, along with the Justice district, rated a 2, are all geographically similar on a map. But you’ll pay at least $1.35 million for a home in Langley or McLean and only $1.12 million in Justice, a $230,000 premium. 

In areas with a similar commute to DC, you’ll still pay a premium of $230,000 for higher-ranked school districts in Fairfax County, Virginia. Source: Zillow, accessed Recently Sold by School District, February 16, 2023.

One of the biggest premiums I discovered is between Fairfax County’s Falls Church High versus the high school in Falls Church City.

On the Fairfax County Public Schools boundary map, Falls Church City is a 2.1 square mile bite out of the county. Its website reports that “the city is an independent municipality, separate from the surrounding Arlington and Fairfax Counties with its own school system.”

Source: Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS) High School Boundary Map, SY 2022-2023.

In response to increasing urbanization, Falls Church City seceded from Fairfax County in the 1950s and is the smallest incorporated municipality in Virginia and the smallest county-equivalent municipality in the United States. But its near 15,000 residents have the largest median income in the nation, rewarding Falls Church City with one of the top spots on the nation’s list of wealthiest counties. 

If you want to be served by the schools of Falls Church City, you’ll pay $1.3 million. Or, consider crossing down the block and purchasing a similar home for $440,000 less, where the median home values in Fairfax County’s Falls Church High district are $915,000. Many of these homes are within blocks of each other, and just as close to the Nation’s capital. 

Within a few blocks, you might spend $440,000 more for a home in Falls Church City versus Fairfax County’s Falls Church school district. Source: Zillow, accessed Recently Sold by School District, February 16, 2023.

The big difference? Falls Church City’s high school is a top-ranked school, rated a 7, while Falls Church High, sits at the bottom of the rankings, with a rating of 2.

Parents assume rankings reflect an accurate and complete picture of a school’s performance (test scores, achievement gaps, and so on). Schools with a high score must have better teachers, resources and outcomes, while schools with a low score must be lacking. 

But is that true?  Are “good schools” worth the investment? How much more should you pay for better outcomes? What’s your child’s future worth? 

Now that we know how much more a home costs in a good school district, learn whether good schools are a good investment.

If you found this post useful or interesting, please like it or share with a friend. I’d also love to hear how you found your home, and your reactions to today’s post in the comment section.

Doing what’s best for our kids

We all want the best for our children, and as parents, we’re highly predictive in our child’s future success. Not that we need reminding. Today’s parenting culture would have us believe that every decision, from the choice of water bottle to bedtime story, makes a difference.

The reality is that just a few big rocks matter: our incomes, marriage, and where we choose to live. 

Where we live matters a lot. Self-reliance and grit is often nothing compared to the opportunity and outcomes the best homes, neighborhoods and schools deliver in a child’s life. 

Deciding where to belong may start with the desire for more space or a garage, but the search for a place to call home is soon taken over by schools. Where are the good schools? What’s the best school for my child? Neighborhood property values and schools tend to rise and fall together. Knowledge is power after all. With enough knowledge, you can not only fend off circumstances of your birth, inequality, and discrimination, but you can create opportunity, wealth and success.

Discovering good schools and neighborhoods

It’s no wonder that getting the best education for our kids consumes us parents -- and that’s where school rankings come in. Often based on factors such as test scores, graduation rates, and other performance indicators, sites like Great Schools, Niche and US News & World Report publish rankings to help families evaluate and compare schools. 

Parents assume rankings reflect an accurate and complete picture of a school’s performance; schools with a high score offer better teachers, resources and outcomes, while schools with a low score should be avoided. The implication is that good schools are in limited supply. 

Certainly, test scores can provide insights into student achievement, but they are just one piece of the puzzle. Both parents and schools can get caught in a game of scarcity and competition when looking at school rankings, and may feel incentivized to focus on gaming the system, while neglecting other aspects of education, such as character development, social-emotional well-being, critical thinking skills, and creativity.

While schools can be pathways to success, school rankings can be harbingers of inequality. So, what truly makes a “good” school? Similarly, what makes a “good” neighborhood? Why do we place so much emphasis on the notions of good schools and neighborhoods, and are they truly worth the cost?

"Where Success Lives" will explore how parents protect and build wealth in the best homes, neighborhoods and schools.

Over the next few weeks, we'll break down how much more you'll pay for a home in a good school district, whether higher-ranked schools are a worthwhile investment, whether lower-ranked schools are safe, and how to evaluate and discover the best places for your child.

Join our community of committed parents and educators

“Where Success Lives” is a newsletter for parents, educators and anyone interested in how the best homes, neighborhoods and schools influence the next generation’s success. With a free weekly email, “Where Success Lives” aims to give you the numbers and decision-making tools you need to feel more empowered as you decide where to live and what’s best for your child(ren).

I’m Rebecca Healy and this newsletter includes many things I enjoy: making sense of complex decisions, weaving together multiple data sources, and a deep curiosity toward understanding place and success.

I hope everything I write will empower parents to shape their current and future communities, and that you’ll join me, as we unearth where success lives.

The first post will go live Thursday, June 1st, with weekly posts thereafter.

You can also help me by liking this post, commenting and sharing with a friend. Thank you, and I can’t wait to explore these questions and ideas together.

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