Here's How Much More You'll Pay for a Home with Good Schools

Neighborhoods with the best school districts cost parents a significant premium

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You’re not the only one. Aspirational scrolling on apps like Zillow or Redfin is part of many a parent's routine, even when we have no plans to buy or sell a house. Whether voyeurism or escapism, browsing may help visualize an alternate life, or in better times, feel good about your own life decisions.

Like social media, it can be addicting. “It’s the closest thing we have to being able to pull up someone’s bank statement and make a boolean assessment of whether or not someone is rich,” says Brian Feldman in his newsletter Bnet. “Zillow is a database of wealth,” while also being “a giant canvas onto which people project their desires and insecurities.”

Wide-angled house photos may kick off your Zillow addiction, but it’s two numbers that likely have the most to do with your ambitions as a parent: the price of the house and the ranking of the nearest school. 

According to Realtor.com, nearly 75% of homebuyers said that school district boundaries were important or very important in their home search in a 2019 survey. Zillow conducts a similar survey and found in 2018 that 66% of homebuyers with children at home said that living within a preferred school district is very or extremely important.

Can opportunity be bought? How much is the future success of your child worth? 

Few things are more top-of-mind for parents, especially in Northern Virginia, a well-to-do enclave surrounding the outskirts of Washington, DC. Of the Nation’s top ten wealthiest counties, four are located in Northern Virginia, collectively referred to as “NoVA” by the locals. Those include Loudoun County, Falls Church City, Fairfax County, and Arlington County.

Four of the Nations’s top ten wealthiest counties are in Northern Virginia (NoVA), a wealthy enclave outside of Washington, DC. Source: 2020 Census & Wikipedia.

While Northern Virginia has a booming technology scene (Amazon, Microsoft and Google all have a presence), it has historically benefited from jobs in the government and defense sectors, being home to numerous federal agencies and defense contractors. As a result, NoVA’s economy has been more-or-less recession-proof. 

Ranked among the top high schools in Northern Virginia and the nation is Fairfax County’s Langley High. Median home values in Langley’s district, located in the posh and wooded area of Great Falls (realtors report you’ll find everything from Tudor mansions and Craftsman homes to expansive horse farms and luxurious estates), are $1.6 million. That’s nearly 60% more than the next wealthiest school district, neighboring McLean, where median home values sit at $1 million. 

Compare Langley and McLean to Fairfax County’s lower-ranked, by rating and reputation, Herndon High or South Lakes High, where median home values sit at $583,000 and $505,000 respectively. 

In Fairfax County, higher-ranked schools are in neighborhoods with larger home values, while lower-ranked schools reflect lower home values. Source: Zillow, accessed Recently Sold by School District, February 16, 2023.

And no, that’s not your imagination; researchers have found a clear correlation between the performance of a school and median home values. Median home sale prices go up the higher the school ranking.

Median home sale prices vs school test score percentile. Source: Redfin.

A popular destination for parents, GreatSchools is a nonprofit organization that provides school ratings and reviews. Out of a total possible score of 10, GreatSchools distills K-12 schools to a single numerical digit, based on academic performance, growth and other factors, such as equity and diversity. 

In the mid-2000s, GreatSchools began to work with real estate websites to integrate its school ratings into property listings. One of the earliest real estate websites to integrate GreatSchools ratings was Zillow, which began displaying school information alongside property listings in 2009. Since then, other sites, such as Redfin and Trulia, have also integrated GreatSchools ratings into their listings.

Check out a Great Falls home listing on Zillow in Fairfax County, and you’ll discover Langley High is rated a 9. Browsing neighboring districts, you’ll discover McLean High is rated a 7, South Lakes High is rated a 4, and Herndon High is rated a 3. 

GreatSchools ratings are integrated into home real estate listings. Source: Zillow.

GreatSchools ratings have a great influence on parent decisions, affecting opportunities and outcomes for an individual child, but also the culture, economy and dynamics of the neighborhood created by the school boundary line. Outsized advantages tend to pool for families within highly-rated areas.

The entry price to these opportunity neighborhoods is steep. Housing prices in the areas of highly-ranked schools are much higher than those served by lower-ranked schools.

According to a study by Redfin, homes located in the highest-rated school districts sell for an average of $205,000 more than homes in lower-rated school districts. A study by Trulia found that in some cities, the difference in home prices between neighborhoods with top-rated schools and those with average schools can be as much as 25%.

My own data verifies these findings. Returning to Fairfax County, I analyzed over 21,000 recently sold listings, and looked specifically at similar homes with 3000 to 3999 sq ft. I then compared prices between highly-ranked schools, rated a 9, and lower-ranked schools, rated a 2, 3 or 4. What I found was an average price difference of nearly $270,000. 

In Fairfax County, Virginia, parents can expect to pay a premium as much as $270,000, depending on the school district. Source: Zillow, accessed Recently Sold by School District, February 16, 2023.

If you’re willing to split the difference and settle in a neighborhood with a middle-ranked school, rated 5 or 6, you could save $186,000, but you’d still pay a premium of $82,000 over lower-ranked schools rated 2, 3 or 4. 

Of course, you might be thinking there are other considerations that go into the price of a home. In Northern Virginia, these factors include the commute time, proximity to Washington, DC, your view, lot size and so on. But, while “everyone assumes that better school districts tend to have bigger homes, higher quality homes, larger lots, or a more prime location,” Redfin has debunked that assumption. 

“When accounting for size,” Redfin reports, “on average, people pay $50 more per square foot for homes in top-ranked school zones compared with homes served by average-ranked schools.”

Source: Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS) High School Boundary Map, SY 2022-2023.

Let’s again consider similar homes in NoVA, both in square footage and with a prime location. Langley and McLean districts, rated 9 and 7, along with the Justice district, rated a 2, are all geographically similar on a map. But you’ll pay at least $1.35 million for a home in Langley or McLean and only $1.12 million in Justice, a $230,000 premium. 

In areas with a similar commute to DC, you’ll still pay a premium of $230,000 for higher-ranked school districts in Fairfax County, Virginia. Source: Zillow, accessed Recently Sold by School District, February 16, 2023.

One of the biggest premiums I discovered is between Fairfax County’s Falls Church High versus the high school in Falls Church City.

On the Fairfax County Public Schools boundary map, Falls Church City is a 2.1 square mile bite out of the county. Its website reports that “the city is an independent municipality, separate from the surrounding Arlington and Fairfax Counties with its own school system.”

Source: Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS) High School Boundary Map, SY 2022-2023.

In response to increasing urbanization, Falls Church City seceded from Fairfax County in the 1950s and is the smallest incorporated municipality in Virginia and the smallest county-equivalent municipality in the United States. But its near 15,000 residents have the largest median income in the nation, rewarding Falls Church City with one of the top spots on the nation’s list of wealthiest counties. 

If you want to be served by the schools of Falls Church City, you’ll pay $1.3 million. Or, consider crossing down the block and purchasing a similar home for $440,000 less, where the median home values in Fairfax County’s Falls Church High district are $915,000. Many of these homes are within blocks of each other, and just as close to the Nation’s capital. 

Within a few blocks, you might spend $440,000 more for a home in Falls Church City versus Fairfax County’s Falls Church school district. Source: Zillow, accessed Recently Sold by School District, February 16, 2023.

The big difference? Falls Church City’s high school is a top-ranked school, rated a 7, while Falls Church High, sits at the bottom of the rankings, with a rating of 2.

Parents assume rankings reflect an accurate and complete picture of a school’s performance (test scores, achievement gaps, and so on). Schools with a high score must have better teachers, resources and outcomes, while schools with a low score must be lacking. 

But is that true?  Are “good schools” worth the investment? How much more should you pay for better outcomes? What’s your child’s future worth? 

Now that we know how much more a home costs in a good school district, learn whether good schools are a good investment.

If you found this post useful or interesting, please like it or share with a friend. I’d also love to hear how you found your home, and your reactions to today’s post in the comment section.