very interesting! one thought to add: are higher income schools more apt to not report - i.e. parents talk with school administrations about not reporting and giving more chances to these students ? so less VDOE tracking/reporting. also, in my review of VDOE stats - Herndon Middle had higher #'s of incidents but you are finding lower #'s at Herndon High - so would be interesting to understand the differences in age groups too.
Thank you for sharing! I agree, but think if there is a bias, I would flip it, and say that lower income schools are more likely to report, given preconceived perceptions of the student population.
Great call out on age differences. Age is definitely a factor, for example, on pg 8 of the “2021 indicators of school crime and safety report” linked above, you can see that middle school students (6th, 7th and 8th grades) report much higher rates of being bullied; that drops when the kids enter high school. Middle school is certainly one of the harder times in a child’s life!
I have no preference for either school; the year you selected just struck me as possibly worth thinking about. Thanks again for putting all this research into such a well-organized and readable format!
Anne - I wanted to confirm that I updated the Langley/Herndon high school data to the 2018-2019 school year and will issue a correction in the next email. Thank you again!!
Thank you for considering and revising! When more post-pandemic data become available, it will be interesting to see where shifts have occurred, and where things have bounced back to "normal" (in a larger education sense, not just for school safety). I'm sure statisticians will have plenty to keep them busy as we make sense of it all!
Oh, great point!! I honestly hadn't considered the pandemic (I suppose I've tried to block it out of my mind, oof) while looking at the numbers, but you're absolutely right. That would make a lot more sense as to why the numbers were so much lower. I'm going to go ahead and take the Fairfax County/Virginia section out of this post for now, until I get the chance to review further. I think the rest of the post still stands, but I'll chime back here if/when I'm able to add the Fairfax County analyses back in. THANK YOU for this call-out, super helpful, and I'm very grateful to have commenters like you in this community.
As a parent, when I compare school rankings I think less about safety than about resources and student achievement. I hazard to guess that many home buyers are more likely to lump school safety into neighborhood crime rate than to school ranking.
But I am going to make a generalized statement without supporting data that neighborhood crime rate and school ranking are more strongly coupled (albeit inversely) than school zone's income levels and school ranking.
Furthermore, not only is "school climate a better predictor of school safety than the socioeconomic status (SES) or racial demographics of a school’s population," school climate can be either a product of the neighborhood's crime rate or an influencer in bringing the community together and driving down crimes.
Super interesting, thanks for sharing Gene! Parents have so many different considerations when evaluating schools. I think perhaps because we are in a district of a mid-ranked elementary school that feeds into lower ranked middle and high schools, safety is a conversation that comes up a lot on play dates. There’s often a lot of chatter about the latest incidents at these schools! Many families that are ok with the elementary school end up moving or choosing other options to avoid the middle or high school.
Income is absolutely correlated with school rankings and academic performance. And as quoted in the post, researchers have found “living in a dangerous neighborhood does not necessarily lead to more drug use or violence within school walls.” I think you’re spot on that school climate can be the deciding factor there.
Overall crime and violence are back on a downward trend not just in schools, but across the country, after some worrying upticks during the pandemic. Think it’s good to keep that context in mind as well. Thank you for your thoughtful comment!
When I bought my house, the realtor described it as a "starter home": affordable for young first-time buyers, zoned to a good elementary school, and many young families in this subdivision. Even my neighbor who has lived here since the subdivision was built nearly 30 years ago and started her family here described this subdivision as a starter home neighborhood (obviously, they liked it here and didn't move out). The implication seemed to be that people were expected to move out to bigger homes (or neighboring counties with lower property taxes) after a few years, possibly before mortgage is paid off.
This topic of school safety makes me wonder if we ought to hold a more transactional view about where we make our homes and the ranking or safety of the schools our kids will feed into. In other words, is it socially bad or financially impractical to start in a neighborhood that has a reasonably ranked elementary school and moving somewhere else for better middle school and high school after a few years?
That's a great insight to bring into the conversation; there is definitely a cultural expectation that you begin in starter homes and then move "onwards and upwards." I do believe that buying a home in America is about making an investment (a transaction as you say) rather than finding a place to belong. However, the very notion that home buying is an investment means that only certain parents have access to such a vehicle for their families, and the ability to buy/sell/trade as appropriate. This has financial implications, of course, but also,(and what I'm very interested in exploring over time) cultural and behavioral expectations that create a positive feedback loop for only certain members of society.
What works in schools reminds me of what works in parenting. Overly authoritarian or neglectful is bad for kids at home and at school. Authoritative with clear rules and expectations, open communication and natural consequences helps everyone to thrive.
very interesting! one thought to add: are higher income schools more apt to not report - i.e. parents talk with school administrations about not reporting and giving more chances to these students ? so less VDOE tracking/reporting. also, in my review of VDOE stats - Herndon Middle had higher #'s of incidents but you are finding lower #'s at Herndon High - so would be interesting to understand the differences in age groups too.
Thank you for sharing! I agree, but think if there is a bias, I would flip it, and say that lower income schools are more likely to report, given preconceived perceptions of the student population.
Great call out on age differences. Age is definitely a factor, for example, on pg 8 of the “2021 indicators of school crime and safety report” linked above, you can see that middle school students (6th, 7th and 8th grades) report much higher rates of being bullied; that drops when the kids enter high school. Middle school is certainly one of the harder times in a child’s life!
I've been keeping my eyes peeled on my inbox for this series. There hasn't been any new article since this one came out, right?
Thank you for the interesting research and work you share! Not to criticize, but I wonder how useful it is to consider safety data from 2020-21, when many students attended virtually, and in-person school was very different for those who did return? Obviously post-pandemic numbers would be preferable, but since those aren't posted online yet I wonder if looking at 2018-19 data might be more "normal" for lack of a better word. For example, in 2018-19 Herndon High had 114 DCV incidents, while Langley had 39. (Per https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:2:::NO::P0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:270,0 and https://schoolprofiles.fcps.edu/schlprfl/f?p=108:2:::NO::P0_CURRENT_SCHOOL_ID,P0_EDSL:020,0)
I have no preference for either school; the year you selected just struck me as possibly worth thinking about. Thanks again for putting all this research into such a well-organized and readable format!
Anne - I wanted to confirm that I updated the Langley/Herndon high school data to the 2018-2019 school year and will issue a correction in the next email. Thank you again!!
Thank you for considering and revising! When more post-pandemic data become available, it will be interesting to see where shifts have occurred, and where things have bounced back to "normal" (in a larger education sense, not just for school safety). I'm sure statisticians will have plenty to keep them busy as we make sense of it all!
Oh, great point!! I honestly hadn't considered the pandemic (I suppose I've tried to block it out of my mind, oof) while looking at the numbers, but you're absolutely right. That would make a lot more sense as to why the numbers were so much lower. I'm going to go ahead and take the Fairfax County/Virginia section out of this post for now, until I get the chance to review further. I think the rest of the post still stands, but I'll chime back here if/when I'm able to add the Fairfax County analyses back in. THANK YOU for this call-out, super helpful, and I'm very grateful to have commenters like you in this community.
As a parent, when I compare school rankings I think less about safety than about resources and student achievement. I hazard to guess that many home buyers are more likely to lump school safety into neighborhood crime rate than to school ranking.
But I am going to make a generalized statement without supporting data that neighborhood crime rate and school ranking are more strongly coupled (albeit inversely) than school zone's income levels and school ranking.
Furthermore, not only is "school climate a better predictor of school safety than the socioeconomic status (SES) or racial demographics of a school’s population," school climate can be either a product of the neighborhood's crime rate or an influencer in bringing the community together and driving down crimes.
Super interesting, thanks for sharing Gene! Parents have so many different considerations when evaluating schools. I think perhaps because we are in a district of a mid-ranked elementary school that feeds into lower ranked middle and high schools, safety is a conversation that comes up a lot on play dates. There’s often a lot of chatter about the latest incidents at these schools! Many families that are ok with the elementary school end up moving or choosing other options to avoid the middle or high school.
Income is absolutely correlated with school rankings and academic performance. And as quoted in the post, researchers have found “living in a dangerous neighborhood does not necessarily lead to more drug use or violence within school walls.” I think you’re spot on that school climate can be the deciding factor there.
Overall crime and violence are back on a downward trend not just in schools, but across the country, after some worrying upticks during the pandemic. Think it’s good to keep that context in mind as well. Thank you for your thoughtful comment!
When I bought my house, the realtor described it as a "starter home": affordable for young first-time buyers, zoned to a good elementary school, and many young families in this subdivision. Even my neighbor who has lived here since the subdivision was built nearly 30 years ago and started her family here described this subdivision as a starter home neighborhood (obviously, they liked it here and didn't move out). The implication seemed to be that people were expected to move out to bigger homes (or neighboring counties with lower property taxes) after a few years, possibly before mortgage is paid off.
This topic of school safety makes me wonder if we ought to hold a more transactional view about where we make our homes and the ranking or safety of the schools our kids will feed into. In other words, is it socially bad or financially impractical to start in a neighborhood that has a reasonably ranked elementary school and moving somewhere else for better middle school and high school after a few years?
That's a great insight to bring into the conversation; there is definitely a cultural expectation that you begin in starter homes and then move "onwards and upwards." I do believe that buying a home in America is about making an investment (a transaction as you say) rather than finding a place to belong. However, the very notion that home buying is an investment means that only certain parents have access to such a vehicle for their families, and the ability to buy/sell/trade as appropriate. This has financial implications, of course, but also,(and what I'm very interested in exploring over time) cultural and behavioral expectations that create a positive feedback loop for only certain members of society.
LOVE LOVE LOVE THIS!!! --> "Simple interventions such as clear rules, follow-through and teacher support have positive impacts on increasing safety."
What works in schools reminds me of what works in parenting. Overly authoritarian or neglectful is bad for kids at home and at school. Authoritative with clear rules and expectations, open communication and natural consequences helps everyone to thrive.